According to statistics by the National Treasury, 42% of South Africans under the age of 30 were unemployed in 2011. The same statistics show that employment of youth aged 18-24 years has decreased by 20% in the interval of December 2008 and 2010, due in parts to aftershocks from the global recession. The overall decline was 6.4%.

Youth unemployment is one of the many shackles that restrain South African growth. 42% of my peers are not employed. They have no formal means to raise an income; but not only are they losing their income, they are not granted an opportunity or a platform to contribute to our society or economy. They are not being equipped to become independent and innovative citizens. They are being moulded as a burden on our government, dependent on social grants and promises from politicians. In ten years the beneficiaries of state social grants have increased from 3.5 million to 15.1 million. AS ANC MP Prof Ben Turok said: "South Africa is becoming a charity rather than a developmental state".

Our youth is unemployed for various reasons. Firstly, our education system fails to equip them with basic skills. Secondly, 66% of our unemployed youth have no job experience, a vital asset for an individual seeking employment. Both these factors make employing our youth a very risky investment, when there is such a large discrepancy between start-up salaries and level of productivity.

Late former chairperson of the Centre for Policy Studies, Professor Lawrence Schlemmer, believed that economic and social disempowerment leaves the youth psychologically vulnerable to gangster/criminal culture as well as “the activism of slick political entrepreneurs”. This has spurred many thought leaders to consider whether the Arab Spring would extend to our frustrated youth.

Political and Trend Analyst JP Landman recently presented a compilation of the core environment that support’s an “Arab spring” to the BoE Private Clients. The countries where the movement gained foothold were all middle-income nations with high rates of inequality and poverty. The demographics also showed a “youth bulge” with 30-32% of the population aged between 15-29 years and citizens were allowed very restricted political and civil rights. Grading South Africa according to these categories, South Africa exhibits 4 of the 5 traits that inflame a country to the “Arab Spring” movement: our economy is classified as middle-income; we have extremely high rates of poverty and one of the highest rates of inequality worldwide; 28% of our population is aged between 15 and 29, but Landman considers this high enough to categories as an environment to promote the Arab Spring movement.

With 4 of the 5 conditions met, would South Africa experience a youth mobilized revolution to overturn the current government?

Many thought leaders would answer in the negative. Our media sector has not yet been disempowered; they are allowed to police our government and hold them publically accountable for misjudgements and misbehaviours. Whether we will retain this right is another story. The judiciary system is independent and constitutional, they argue. South Africa has an opposition party to give voice to counter-arguments and criticisms of current government. A survey done by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation in late 2011 reports that 66% of respondents indicated that they trust the national government to deliver basic services. If that seems incredible, survey statistics of late 2011 by Ipsos Markinor reflect that 56% of our population has confidence in our government. These surveys would indicate that the majority of citizens are not as dissatisfied with our government as to rise up in mass protest to force regime change.

And yet the number of service delivery protest has increased from 2 in 2006 to 111 in 2010, according to the city press. And between January and May of 2012 there has been an astounding 372 service delivery protests, according to national police spokesperson Colonel Vishnu Naidoo. Political analyst Moeletsi Mbeki has even come out and proclaimed that the current government will have lost power by 2030 and that an Arab spring-like revolution would very likely be a contributing factor. He said we shared several characteristics with countries of the Arab spring movement: our populace was educated to an extent and had high expectations that were not being met economically and socially. He believes the people will grow sick of the political elite feeding only their own consumption.

ANC treasurer-general Matthews Phosa even spoke to warn against disgruntled youth turning on the current government. He said the Arab Spring was a lesson to other countries not to neglect their frustrated youth. The National Planning Commission estimated that the chances of an individual entering employment without experience after 24 years of age is minimal. Thus 60% of our generation will spend most of their lives without formal employment.

Is that a fact we can ignore? Is that a fact the government can ignore?

Reflecting back on youth day to our courageous previous generation, I see the same distancing between leadership and a disgruntled youth today. Not fuelled by the same issues, but neglected and almost as disempowered. Will this lead to a South African Arab Spring? Do we need an Arab Spring to address these issues? Do we need to march on the union buildings, mass-mobilized and driven by anger? Or do we need a non-politicised platform, where the leadership of this nation enters dialogue with the youth to be held accountable and responsible for their actions and promises? Where we are empowered to seek innovative solutions; where we encounter each other and try and find solutions locally and nationally? A think-tank for entrepreneurs, to solve youth unemployment, combined with the support and investment of the government; a network of young minds who wish to claim our country and have a hand in steering it. The direction the current generation steers it in will after all determine our starting point: whether, ten years from now, we just continue building on a strong foundation or whether we have to demolish and try to salvage something amongst the ruins.